China Fertilizer Market Review & Outlook 2006/2007
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December 2007
TABLE OF CONTENT
Background 1
Content 1
CHAPTER ONE Macro-Economy & Fertilizer Industry’S Development 1
CHAPTER TWO Review & Outlook Of China’S Fertilizer Market In 2006-2007 2
CHAPTER THREE Review & Outlook Of Nitrogen Market In 2006-2007 2
CHAPTER FOUR Review & Outlook Of Phosphorus Market, 2006-2007 3
CHAPTER FIVE Review & Outlook Of Potassium Market In 2006-2007 4
CHAPTER SIX Review & Outlook Of Compound Fertilizer Market In 2006-2007 4
CHAPTER SEVEN Review & Outlook Of Fertilizer-Related Industries In 2006-2007 5
APPENDIX Ⅰ Table 6
Chemical Fertilizer 6
N-Fertilizer 6
P-Fertilizer 7
K-Fertilizer 7
Compound Fertilizer 7
Chemical Fertilizer Related Products 8
APPENDIX Ⅱ Memorabilia Of Chemical Fertilizer Market In 2006 8
Background
China maintained a rapid economic growth in 2006 under the national macro-control policy, the first year of the 11th Five-Year Period (2006~2010) of the national economic development. A series of policies for economic development, including objectives, key points of growth and directions of structural readjustment, have been worked out.
The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Chinese Economic And Social Development, promulgated in March, 2006, requires that per unit GDP energy consumption and pollution discharge be reduced by 20% and 10% in five years against the backdrop of an expected annual 7.5% GDP growth. This poses a new challenge to the fertilizer industry because it is one of the industries with high energy consumption and high pollution discharge. The policy is expected to bring about a new round of technical innovation, distribution of production and product-mix readjustment in the fertilizer industry. How will the new round of restructuring be carried out?
The 11th Five-Year Plan for National Agricultural & Rural Economic Development, promulgated in Aug., 2006, sets up a goal of annual 0.65% increase in comprehensive grain productive capacity in five years under the condition of annual 0.18% decrease in planted grain acreage. Then how will the fertilizer industry step up fertilizer supply, improve its product-mix, improve fertilizing technology and raise fertilizer utilization to ensure the accomplishment of grain production goals?
The 11th Five-Year Plan for the Fertilizer Industry, promulgated in Oct., 2006, puts forward a fertilizer productive capacity of 63.5 million MT and a production of 60 million MT a year by 2010 in order to guarantee fertilizer supply. The specific goals of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium production are 42 million MT, 15 million MT and 3 million MT respectively. Domestic fertilizer self-sufficiency should reach 90%, that is, basic self-sufficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus supply and 30% of potassium supply. How will the fertilizer industry readjust its distribution of production and product-mix and what steps will it take in technical innovation to attain the industry’s development goals?
The conflict between the government’s policy to practice macro-control and the policy of increasing farmers’ income and the conflict between fertilizer price growth and government’s control remained unsettled in 2006. Farmers’ and fertilizer producers’ complaints led to a government decision to lift fertilizer price control, withdraw preference policies for fertilizer producers and give direct cash subsidy to farmers from 2007 on. But fertilizer production cost keeps increasing on account of the reform of coal, power and natural gas price toward market economy. Owing to this, there was a tendency of declining profit margin in the fertilizer industry in late 2006. Therefore, how the government reforms its policies will have great impact on fertilizer production and fertilizer market trend in 2007.
On the basis of thorough review and analysis of government’s fertilizer policies and market trend in 2006, taking into account of national economic move and overall policy reform, BOABC will make an in-depth analysis of the problems facing the fertilizer market in 2007 and draw reasonable conclusions, so as to provide a reference to people concerned about China’s fertilizer market.
Content
CHAPTER ONE Macro-Economy & Fertilizer Industry’S Development
1.1 National Economic Planning And Fertilizer Industry’s Planning
1.1.1 National Economic Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period (2006-2010)
1.1.2 Fertilizer Industry’s Development Planning Goals and emphases for 11th Five-Year Period
1.1.3 Agricultural Development Planning Goals and emphases in 11th Five-Year Period
1.2 Agricultural Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment and Development
1.2.1 The influences of Agricultural Policy on Fertilizer Industry’s Investment and Development
1.2.2 Fertilizer Subsidy Policy And Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development
1.3 Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development
1.3.1 Coal Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development
1.3.2 Natural Gas Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development
1.3.3 Electricity Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development
1.3.4 Mineral Resource Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment And Development
1.4 Environmental Protection & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development
1.5 Financial Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development
1.6 Investment Policy & Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development
1.7 China Fertilizer Industry’s Investment & Development in 2006-2010
1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogen Industry
1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry
1.7.3 Investment in Potassium Industry
1.8 Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness
1.8.1 Nitrogen Industry’s Competitiveness
1.8.2 Phosphorus Industry’s Competitiveness
1.8.3 Potassium Industry’s Competitiveness
1.9 Fertilizer Distribution System
1.9.1 Fertilizer Distribution System Development
1.9.2 Development of Chain Store Mode in Farm Material Distribution
1.9.3 Sinochem’s Marketing Network Construction
1.9.4 China Farm Supply Group’s Marketing Network Construction
1.9.5 Postal System’s Participation in Farm Material Supply
1.9.6 Foreign Investment in Fertilizer Distribution
CHAPTER TWO Review & Outlook Of China’S Fertilizer Market In 2006-2007
2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2006
2.1.1 Impact of Government’s Macro-Readjustment on Fertilizer Market
2.1.1.1 Impact of Financial Policy Change on Investment in Fertilizer Industry
2.1.1.2 Effect of Government’s Regulating Policy on Fertilizer Market
2.1.2 Influence of International Fertilizer Market on Chinese Market
2.1.3 Analysis of Fertilizer Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006
2.1.4 Fertilizer Market in 2006
2.1.5 Fertilizer Input & Returns from Farm Production
2.1.6 Fertilizer Production in 2006
2.1.7 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2006
2.1.8 Fertilizer Consumption in 2006
2.1.9 Fertilizer Market Price in 2006
2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2007
2.2.1 Prediction of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2007
2.2.2 Possible Fertilizer Policy in 2007
2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quota Distribution for Year 2007
2.2.4 Authorized Fertilizer Importers in 2007
2.2.5 Possible Change in Fertilizer Export Tax Rate
2.2.6 Estimates of Fertilizer Production in 2007
2.2.7 Estimates of Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007
2.2.8 Estimates of Fertilizer Consumption in 2007
CHAPTER Three Review & Outlook Of Nitrogen Market In 2006-2007
3.1 Review of Nitrogen Market in 2006
3.1.1 Analysis of Nitrogen Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006
3.1.2 Production Cost & Yields in Nitrogen Industry in 2006
3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogen Market in 2006
3.1.4 Nitrogen Production in 2006
3.1.5 Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2006
3.1.6 Nitrogen Consumption in 2006
3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2006
3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2006
3.1.7.2 Urea Production in 2006
3.1.7.3 Urea consumption in 2006
3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend
3.1.8 ABC Market in 2006
3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2006
3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2006
3.1.8.3 ABC Price Trend in 2006
3.2 Outlook of Nitrogen Market in 2007
3.2.1 Prediction of Nitrogen Market Trend in 2007
3.2.2 Urea Market Trend in 2007
3.2.3 Estimates of Nitrogen Production in 2007
3.2.4 Estimates of Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2007
3.2.5 Estimates of Nitrogen Consumption in 2007
CHAPTER FOUR Review & Outlook Of Phosphorus Market, 2006-2007
4.1 Review of Phosphorus Market in 2006
4.1.1 Analysis of Phosphorus Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006
4.1.2 Cost & Yields in Phosphorus Industry in 2006
4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphorus Market in 2006
4.1.4 Phosphorus Production in 2006
4.1.5 Phosphorus Imports & Exports in 2006
4.16 Phosphorus Consumption in 2006
4.1.7 Phosphorus Price in 2006
4.2 Outlook of Phosphorus Market in 2007
4.2.1 Prediction of Phosphorus Market Trend in 2007
4.2.2 Estimates of Phosphorus Production in 2007
4.2.3 Estimates of Phosphorus Exports
4.2.4 Estimates of Phosphorus Consumption
CHAPTER FIVE Review & Outlook Of Potassium Market In 2006-2007
5.1 Review of Potassium Market in 2006
5.1.1 Analysis of Potassium Industry’s Prosperity Index in 2006
5.1.2 Cost & Yields in Potassium Industry
5.1.3 Qinghai Salt Lake Potassium Group’s Production
5.1.4 Progress in Xinjiang Lop Nor Potassium Project
5.1.5 Progress in Chinese Overseas Potassium Projects
5.1.6 Potassium Market in 2006
5.1.7 Potassium Production in 2006
5.1.8 Potassium Imports & Exports in 2006
5.1.9 Potassium Consumption in 2006
5.1.10 Potassium Price in 2006
5.2 Outlook of Potassium Market in 2007
5.2.1 Prediction of Potassium Market Trend in 2007
5.2.2 Estimates of Potassium Production in 2007
5.2.3 Estimates of Potassium Exports in 2007
5.2.4 Potassium Consumption in 2007
CHAPTER SIX Review & Outlook Of Compound Fertilizer Market In 2006-2007
6.1 Review of compound fertilizer Market in 2006
6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Index in compound fertilizer Industry in 2006
6.1.2 Cost & Yields in Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2006
6.1.3 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer in 2006
6.1.4 Compound Fertilizer Production in 2006
6.1.5 Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2006
6.1.6 Compound Fertilizer Consumption in 2006
6.1.7 NPK And DAP Price Trend in 2006
6.2 Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2007
6.2.1 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in 2007
6.2.2 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer production in 2007
6.2.3 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007
6.2.3.1 Estimates of DAP Imports & Exports in 2007
6.2.3.2 Estimates of NPK Exports in 2007
6.2.4 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Consumption
CHAPTER SEVEN Review & Outlook Of Fertilizer-Related Industries In 2006-2007
7.1 Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonium Market in 2006-2007
7.1.1 Prospect of Synthetic Ammonium Imports
7.1.2 Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2006
7.1.3 Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports in 2006
7.1.4 Synthetic Ammonium Price Trend in 2006
7.1.5 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2007
7.1.6 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports
7.2 Review & Outlook of Phosphorite Market in 2006-2007
7.2.1 Prospect of Phosphorite Imports
7.2.2 Phosphorite Production in 2006
7.2.3 Phosphorite Imports & Exports
7.2.4 Phosphorite Price Trend in 2006
7.2.5 Estimates of Phosphorite Production in 2007
7.2.6 Phosphorite Imports & Exports in 2007
7.3 Review & Outlook of Sulfuric Acid Market in 2006-2007
7.3.1 Sulfuric Acid Production Plan in 11th Five-Year Period
7.3.2 Sulfuric Acid Production in 2006
7.3.3 Sulfur Production in 2006
7.3.4 Sulfuric Iron Production in 2006
7.3.5 Sulfur Imports in 2006
7.3.6 Sulfuric Acid Imports
7.3.7 Sulfuric Iron & Sulfur Price Trend in 2006
7.3.8 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Production in 2007
7.3.9 Estimates of Sulfur Production in 2007
7.3.10 Estimates of Sulfuric Iron Production in 2007
7.3.11 Estimates of Sulfur Imports in 2007
7.3.12 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Imports in 2007
7.4 Review & Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Market in 2006-2007
7.4.1 Phosphoric Acid Production in 2006
7.4.2 Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2006
7.4.3 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Production in 2007
7.4.4 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2007
APPENDIX Ⅰ Table
Chemical Fertilizer
Table1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006
Table3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2002-2006
Table4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
N-Fertilizer
Table6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2002-2007
Table8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table11, China’s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table12, China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table14, China’s Urea Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table15, China’s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table16, China’s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2002-2006
P-Fertilizer
Table17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
K-Fertilizer
Table21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2002-2007
Table22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2002-2006
Table23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table25, China’s Potassium Chloride Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table26, China’s Potassium Chloride Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table27, Potassium Chloride Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table28, China’s Potassium Chloride Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table29, Potassium Chloride Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table30, China’s Potassium Sulphate Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table31, China’s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table32, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table33, China’s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table34, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Compound Fertilizer
Table35, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2002-2007
Table36, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2002-2007
Table37, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2002-2006
Table38, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2002-2006
Table39, China’s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table40, China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table41, NPK Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table42, China’s NPK Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table43, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2002-2006
Table44, China’s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table45, China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2002-2006
Table46, DAP Imports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table47, China’s DAP Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
Table48, DAP Imports by Province, 2002-2006
Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
Table49, China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table50, China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table51, China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2002-2006
Table52, China’s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2002-2006
Table53, China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2002-2006
Table54, China Unground Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2002-2006
Table55, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2002-2006
APPENDIX Ⅱ Memorabilia Of Chemical Fertilizer Market In 2006